Bayes’ Theorem, Simply Explained

If ignorance is bliss, knowing how to deal with incomplete knowledge is the key. Bayes’ Theorem formalizes all of that.

Bayes’ Theorem formalizes how to calculate the probability of an event to occur given our incomplete knowledge about other factors affecting its realization, and our pre-existing belief. For example, is it going to rain today if the sky is cloudy?

Let’s start with some basic definitions. The probability of an event A to occur is a number between 0 and 1…